انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن و مصرف سوخت‌های فسیلی: مطالعه موردی ایران با استفاده از رویکرد ARDL

The serious condition of fossil fuel usage as the primary cause of carbon dioxide emissions is demonstrated by the rising trend of carbon dioxide emissions over the past few decades. Although efforts have been made to manage it over the years with the price subsidy reform policies of various petroleum products, Iran's carbon emissions have not been reduced or controlled as a result of these policies. Oil, natural gas, and coal are the three most significant fossil fuels. The current study uses the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) method to examine the sort of link between the nation's carbon dioxide emissions throughout the years 1980 to 2021. It is clear from the results of the model estimation that there are short-term dynamics associated with long-term associations. The short-term and long-term coefficients converge directly to one another, according to the interpretation of the error correction coefficient, which is equal to -0.72. Furthermore, according to the study's findings, a 1% rise in the consumption of petroleum products leads to 0.26% and 0.25% more carbon dioxide emissions over the short- and long-term, respectively. Additional model results demonstrate that a one percent increase in natural gas consumption has short-term and long-term effects on carbon dioxide emissions that are similar to 0.43% and 0.21%, respectively. According to other model results, a one percent increase in coal usage causes a 0.08% short-term rise in carbon emissions. The long-term model does not take into account the impact of coal on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions due to the very small share of coal in the country's energy consumption portfolio. The outcomes of the ARDL model demonstrate that the use of natural gas and petroleum products has a large and favorable impact on environmental degradation over the long and short terms. One of the largest global issues in recent decades has been the sharp increase in the emission of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2. The serious condition of fossil fuel usage as the primary cause of carbon dioxide emissions is demonstrated by the rising trend of carbon dioxide emissions over the past few decades. Although efforts have been made to manage it over the years with the price subsidy reform policies of various petroleum products, Iran's carbon emissions have not been reduced or controlled as a result of these policies. Oil, natural gas and coal are the three most significant fossil fuels. The current study uses the auto regressive distributed lags (ARDL) method to examine the sort of link between the nation's carbon dioxide emissions throughout the years 1980 to 2021. It is clear from the results of the model estimation that there are short-term dynamics associated with long-term associations. The short-term and long-term coefficients converge directly to one another, according to the interpretation of the error correction coefficient, which is equal to -0.72. Furthermore, according to the study's findings, a 1% rise in the consumption of petroleum products leads in 0.26% and 0.25% more carbon dioxide emissions over the short- and long-term, respectively. Additional model results demonstrate that a one percent increase in natural gas consumption has short-term and long-term effects on carbon dioxide emissions that are similar to 0.43% and 0.21%, respectively. According to other model results, a one percent increase in coal usage causes a 0.08% short-term rise in carbon emissions. The long-term model does not take into account the impact of coal on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions due to the very small share of coal in the country's energy consumption portfolio. The outcomes of the ARDL model demonstrate that use of natural gas and petroleum products has a large and favorable impact on environmental degradation over the long and short terms.One of the largest global issues in recent decades has been the sharp increase in the emission of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2. The serious condition of fossil fuel usage as the primary cause of carbon dioxide emissions is demonstrated by the rising trend of carbon dioxide emissions over the past few decades. Although efforts have been made to manage it over the years with the price subsidy reform policies of various petroleum products, Iran's carbon emissions have not been reduced or controlled as a result of these policies. Oil, natural gas and coal are the three most significant fossil fuels. The current study uses the auto regressive distributed lags (ARDL) method to examine the sort of link between the nation's carbon dioxide emissions throughout the years 1980 to 2021. It is clear from the results of the model estimation that there are short-term dynamics associated with long-term associations. The short-term and long-term coefficients converge directly to one another, according to the interpretation of the error correction coefficient, which is equal to -0.72. Furthermore, according to the study's findings, a 1% rise in the consumption of petroleum products leads in 0.26% and 0.25% more carbon dioxide emissions over the short- and long-term, respectively. Additional model results demonstrate that a one percent increase in natural gas consumption has short-term and long-term effects on carbon dioxide emissions that are similar to 0.43% and 0.21%, respectively. According to other model results, a one percent increase in coal usage causes a 0.08% short-term rise in carbon emissions. The long-term model does not take into account the impact of coal on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions due to the very small share of coal in the country's energy consumption portfolio. The outcomes of the ARDL model demonstrate that use of natural gas and petroleum products has a large and favorable impact on environmental degradation over the long and short terms.One of the largest global issues in recent decades has been the sharp increase in the emission of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2. The serious condition of fossil fuel usage as the primary cause of carbon dioxide emissions is demonstrated by the rising trend of carbon dioxide emissions over the past few decades. Although efforts have been made to manage it over the years with the price subsidy reform policies of various petroleum products, Iran's carbon emissions have not been reduced or controlled as a result of these policies. Oil, natural gas and coal are the three most significant fossil fuels. The current study uses the auto regressive distributed lags (ARDL) method to examine the sort of link between the nation's carbon dioxide emissions throughout the years 1980 to 2021. It is clear from the results of the model estimation that there are short-term dynamics associated with long-term associations. The short-term and long-term coefficients converge directly to one another, according to the interpretation of the error correction coefficient, which is equal to -0.72. Furthermore, according to the study's findings, a 1% rise in the consumption of petroleum products leads in 0.26% and 0.25% more carbon dioxide emissions over the short- and long-term, respectively. Additional model results demonstrate that a one percent increase in natural gas consumption has short-term and long-term effects on carbon dioxide emissions that are similar to 0.43% and 0.21%, respectively. According to other model results, a one percent increase in coal usage causes a 0.08% short-term rise in carbon emissions. The long-term model does not take into account the impact of coal on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions due to the very small share of coal in the country's energy consumption portfolio. The outcomes of the ARDL model demonstrate that the use of natural gas and petroleum products has a large and favorable impact on environmental degradation over the long and short terms.