آشکار‌سازی و برآورد تغییراقلیم سال‌های آتی ایران

Abstract
The purpose of this research is to estimate and evaluate the future climate change of Iran using climatic elements (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation) until the year 2100 in Iran. For this purpose, in the current research, the innovative method and tools of the algorithm and coding and NASA data to evaluate and predict the aforementioned climate elements based on two intermediate scenario (RCP 4.5) and worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) of the Canadian CanESM2 model from the system Google Earth Engine was used under the web. In order to better analyze, investigate and compare Iran's future climate changes, the studied period of 80 years, was divided into the first 40-year period (2021-2060) and the second 40-year period (2061-2100). The results of the current research based on the intermediate scenario (RCP 4.5) indicate that the minimum and maximum; minimum temperature of the second 40-year period compared to the first 40-year period is 2.69 and 0.62 degrees Celsius, respectively, and the minimum and maximum; maximum temperature The second 40-year period compared to the first 40-year period was 3.37 and 0.91 degrees Celsius respectively; Also, based on the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), the minimum and maximum; minimum temperature of the second 40-year period compared to the first 40-year period is 0.54 and 3.32 degrees Celsius, respectively, and the minimum and maximum; maximum temperature of the second 40-year period compared to the period An increasing trend was predicted for the first 40 years of 2.47 and 3.46 degrees Celsius respectively. Based on the results obtained from the present research, in the studied area, the frequency of rainfall decreases in the first 40-year period and increases in the second 40-year period.
Introduction
Climate change is one of the important challenges that affects natural ecosystems and different aspects of human life (Ahmadabadi and Sedighifar, 2018). Two prominent characteristics of the future climate are changes in the average and limit values of hydroclimatic variables (Fahiminezhad, 2019). Climate change is one of the factors that cause changes in climate variables due to the increase of greenhouse gases. The increase of greenhouse gases due to natural and human causes has caused the warming of the earth's atmosphere and consequently seriously affects the water cycle (Mohammadpour Khouie and Nasseri, 1401). Climate change is one of the biggest scientific and geopolitical challenges of today. The main focus of the challenge is the idea of using climate science to look into the future (Collins et al., 2020). The Earth has experienced significant temperature increases at regional and global levels since 1850 (Li et al., 2015; Ozturk et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2021).


Methodology
The present research is within the framework of the research and study of estimating and predicting the future climate change of Iran in the spatial scale of the country, located in the southwest of Asia and the Middle East with an area of 1648195 square kilometers in the geographical coordinates of 25° to 40° north latitude and 44° to 63° east longitude became operational in the period of 80 years (2021-2100). In the aforementioned thematic, geographical and temporal framework, to investigate the amount of climate elements effective in climate change (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation) by using the reliable Canadian climate change model CanESM2 based on intermediate scenarios (RCP 4.5) and worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) was discussed with an innovative approach in estimating Iran's future climate prospects by using remote sensing data from the American National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). According to the studies carried out by the authors of the current research in relation to Iran's climate forecasting to reveal and predict Iran's future climate change until the present research was conducted, most of the researches based on micro-scaling software such as SDSM, LARS WG and Magicc Scengen were used; Considering the function of the above softwares that implement climate change models, they were time-consuming and there was a high probability of human error in the long statistical-mathematical stages and sometimes the error of the micro-scale softwares themselves, to solve these disadvantages and with the approach Innovatively, the updated data of the reliable CanESM2 model of Canadian climate change of the American National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) were used in the open source system on the web (Google Earth Engine).
Results and discussion
The findings obtained from the analysis and investigation of Iran's climate change, the prediction of minimum temperature and maximum temperature climatic elements indicate that in the first forty-year period (2021-2060) based on the intermediate scenario (RCP 4.5), the lowest value of the minimum The temperature was -0.86°C and the maximum value was 25.15°C, while the lowest maximum temperature value was 9.10°C and the highest value was 40.45°C, but in the second forty-year period in the time period (2061-2100) the lowest value of the minimum temperature was 1.83°C and the highest value was 25.77°C, and for the climatic parameter of the maximum temperature, the lowest value was 12.47°C and the highest value was predicted to be 41.36°C. The results obtained from the evaluation and analysis of Iran's climate change, the prediction of minimum temperature and maximum temperature climatic parameters indicate that in the first forty years period (2021-2060) based on the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) the lowest The minimum temperature value was -0.08 °C and the maximum value was 25.76 °C and for the climate parameter, the minimum value was 10.39 °C and the maximum value was 41.38 °C, but for the second forty-year period in the interval At the time (2021-2100), the lowest minimum temperature value is 0.62 degrees Celsius and the highest value is 29.08 degrees Celsius; And for the climatic parameter of maximum temperature, its minimum value was predicted as 12.86 degrees Celsius and its maximum value was predicted as 44.84 degrees Celsius. Based on the results obtained from the satellite images of the minimum and maximum temperature climatic elements in the second forty-year period due to their increase compared to the first forty-year period, in addition to the decrease in the minimum intensity of the minimum temperature zones and the increase in the maximum intensity of the maximum temperature zones; The zones of minimum and maximum temperature elements are extended to high latitudes and mountainous areas.
Conclusion
The analysis of Iran's climate change, the prediction of the climatic parameter of precipitation indicates that in the first forty years in the time period (2021-2060) based on the intermediate scenario (RCP 4.5), the intensity of precipitation fluctuations is the minimum value in the rainy seasons in the region. Study with the values of (0 - 0.00002) kg/(m^2*s) with the number of predicted years (2022, 2025, 2028, 2032, 2033, 2034, 2035, 2036, 2039, 2041, 2043, 2044, 2045 , 2047, 2049, 2050, 2052, 2054, 2055, 2057 and 2058) was obtained, while in the second forty-year period (2061-2100) based on the mentioned scenario, the minimum rainfall fluctuation intensity in the country's rainy seasons with values of (0 - 0.00002) kg/(m^2*s) with the predicted number of years (2061, 2062, 2063, 2065, 2066, 2068, 2070, 2071, 2072, 2073, 2074, 2075, 2079, 2082, 2083, 2084, 2086, 2087, 2090, 2091, 2092, 2096, 2097 and 2100) were predicted. The results obtained from the investigation and analysis of Iran's climate change in predicting the climate parameter of precipitation indicate that in the first forty years in the time period (2021-2060) based on the worst-case scenario (RCP. 8.5), the intensity of precipitation fluctuation is the minimum value in the rainy seasons of Iran. with the values of (0 - 0.00002) kg/(m^2*s) with the number of predicted years (2022, 2023, 2026, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2035, 2036, 2040, 2043, 2044, 2047, 2048, 2050, 2051, and 2054) were predicted. If in the second forty-year period in the time period (2061-2100) based on the mentioned scenario, the intensity of the minimum precipitation fluctuations in the country's rainy seasons with the values of (0 - 0.00002) kg/(m^2*s) with the predicted number of years ( 2061, 2065, 2066, 2067, 2070, 2073, 2074, 2075, 2076, 2078, 2086, 2088, 2091, 2094, 2096, 2097 and 2098) were predicted. Also, based on the results obtained from the satellite images, the climate parameter of precipitation in the second forty-year period based on the scenario (RCP. 8.5) due to its decrease compared to the first forty-year period, in addition to the decrease in the intensity and rainfall areas of the country. Rainy areas of the country have been extended to high latitudes and mountainous regions of the country.
Keywords
Climate change; RCP scenarios; Innovative approach; Forecast; CanESM2