نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی- بازاریابی محصولات کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل
2 دانشیار و عضو هیئت علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
3 اقتصاد کشاورزی،کشاورزی،دانشگاه زابل،ایران
4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، پژوهشکده کشاورزی، پژوهشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
5 استادیار گروه زراعت، پژوهشکده کشاورزی، پژوهشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Dust is a disastrous weather problem that can cause serious environmental hazards and adverse consequences on agriculture, industry and people's daily life. The intensity of these winds is such that by creating the concentration of dust in the sky and the influx of quicksands on the surface of the earth, they deprive people of any activity and create disturbances in the general situation. To the extent that these strong winds today have covered the fields that were used as wheat storage for several millennia with sand dunes, and the drought has progressed to the extent that it has completely dried up an area of 4,000 square kilometers. Successive droughts caused the Hamon wetland to dry up and the bed of that spring became dusty. As a result of the 120-day winds of Sistan, fine dust particles spread for kilometers and create a basic problem for the residents of Sistan in Iran and parts of Afghanistan. The amount of water that enters the wetland through the Hirmand River every year, if it is spread on its bed, it can stabilize the soil particles to some extent and cause plants to grow in the Hamon bed, which is very effective in stabilizing the soil and preventing the spread of dust. However, the spread of floods in the Hamon bed is in conflict with the interests of some wetland beneficiaries such as nomads, fishermen, boatmen and farmers of the Hamon bed. Their interests will be secured if the small amount of water entered into the wetland is concentrated in some places and not spread over a wide area. for this reason The movement of quicksand caused by sandstorms in Sistan region irreparable damage to the economic life of cities and especially villages, including communication roads, agricultural fields, aqueducts and irrigation canals and houses. Therefore, the current research was conducted with the aim of estimating the economic losses of the effects of dust on the beneficiaries of the Hamon wetland.
Methodology
The statistical population of this research is all the beneficiaries of the wetland (fishermen, boatmen, farmers of the wetland bed and nomads) and residents of Sistan region, of which 292 people were randomly selected. In this research, two library-documentary and field methods were used to collect information. To determine the model to measure the willingness to pay, it is assumed that the person accepts the proposed cost for the green and prosperous Hamon wetland based on maximizing his utility under conditions or rejects the proposed cost. The dual questionnaire form in cv survey has a dependent variable with a double choice, which requires a selective qualitative model. Usually, logit and probit models are used for qualitative selection methods, due to the abundant and common use of logit model in calculation, this model was used in this research. The average method of partial willingness to pay is better for calculating the amount of willingness to pay because this method preserves the stability and consistency of the limits with the theory, statistical efficiency and the ability to accumulate; Therefore, the average willingness to pay was used in this research. The parameters of the logit model are estimated using the maximum likelihood method, which is the only technique for estimating the logit model (Hanemann, 1984). Then, the expected value of the willingness to pay is calculated by numerical integration in the range of zero to the highest offer (A) in the form of the following equation. Research data was collected using designed questionnaires that were prepared separately for each department. Users were interviewed in person and in different parts of the lagoon. The willingness to pay method was used to calculate the average willingness to pay of Hamon lagoon users and it was used to calculate the expected value of willingness to pay by numerical integration in the range of zero to the maximum offer. Also, Excel software was used to analyze the variables and mathematical calculations, and SPSS software was used to estimate the parameters of the logit model.
Results
The results of surveying the education level of the respondents showed that 28.1% of people had less than middle school literacy and 20.5% of them were illiterate. Examining the results of people's income status showed that 49.3 percent of users had monthly income between 1-3 million tomans, 26 percent of them had income less than 1 million tomans. The values of Cox and Nel and Nigel Kirk statistics are equal to 0.095 and 0.133, which means that six independent variables (gender, income, education, number of children and occupation) have been able to account for between 10 and 13 percent of the changes in the damage variable Explain the cause of dust. After estimating the parameters of the logit model using the maximum likelihood method, by means of numerical integration in the range of zero to the maximum damage amount (15000000 Rials), the expected value of WTP was calculated, and the average dust damage to the users was 11237600 Rials per year. According to the total population of users (11172 people) of Hamon lagoon, the total value of dust damage to users is 125546467200 rials per year. The average amount of users' willingness to pay is 286,950 rials per year. Considering the total population of users and tourists of Hamon Wetland, the total value of the proposed amount for the restoration of Hamon Wetland is 45,354,350,800 Rials per year, which can be used to preserve and restore natural resources or to invest in the direct values of the wetland in terms of tourism, etc. .
Conclusion
Since the recent droughts in the Sistan region have endangered the life of the Hamoun wetland and led to the employment of a large part of the residents of rural areas who used to earn a living in this way, it is necessary to develop effective strategies for the establishment of non-agricultural industries in order to create employment. We are the residents of the region that if this is not fulfilled, we will witness the depopulation of a huge part of the rural and border areas in the Sistan region.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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