شناسایی عوامل تاثیرگذار بر ریسک محصولات ارگانیک شهرستان ساوه با محوریت تغییر الگو کشت زیست محیطی

Abstract

Introduction
The most important sources of risk that farmers face include economic risks such as fluctuations in the price of raw materials needed by farmers, including seeds and chemical fertilizers, as well as social risks such as theft from farms and agricultural machinery and natural hazards such as pests and diseases of crops. (Hosseini et al., 2021). The agricultural sector has special capabilities due to its continuous and sustainable economic growth, food security, return on investment, currency appreciation, lower valuation, creating social justice in comparison with other economic sectors of the country, so that it has been able to play a very significant role in the economic field. Have a country (Mousavi and Khosravi Pour, 2020). In recent years, due to the growing population and the growing need for food and clothing, the initial human attitude to nature, which was a friendly attitude, gave way to one-sided interaction with nature (Vahedi et al., 2021). Therefore, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, hormonal products, and antibiotics entered the agricultural sector and by using the improved cultivars, great successes were achieved in increasing the production of agricultural products to meet the growing demand for food (Azami et al., 2019). Therefore, considering the importance of organic products in Saveh, in this study, the effective factors on risk management determinants of organic products in Saveh using the method of genetic function approximation and logit algorithm to determine what factors affect the risk of products Organic in Saveh city in changing the pattern of cultivation of environmental products. Nowadays, considering that any agricultural activity faces risk due to the existence of harmful natural events, planning to reduce the amount of risk and increase the security of investment in this sector is essential. Therefore, identifying important factors and determinants affecting farmers' risk management is of particular importance. The aim of this study was to identify the factors affecting the risk of pomegranate growers in Saveh city with the focus on changing the pattern of environmental cultivation using the approximation method of algorithm function and logit regression model. The statistical sample was collected using a random sampling method from 130 pomegranate growers in the city in 2020. Education factors, consumption of animal manure, interest in organic farming, type of tree breed, reduce soil and water pollution, working capital and insurance of pomegranate crop have been positively related to the risk of Kashmir pomegranate growers.
Methodology
- Statistical community and required data
The area under irrigated and rainfed crops of Saveh plain is estimated at 62,540 hectares, which varies in terms of rainfall under different climatic conditions. The statistical population of the present study includes all organic farmers in the Saveh region who cultivate selected crops such as irrigated wheat, barley, cantaloupe, pomegranate, and grapes in their Faryab or irrigated lands. Pomegranate is considered as a strategic product and index of Saveh city as the center of world production and in terms of the area under pomegranate cultivation, Saveh city is the second province in the country, but in terms of production per unit area and quality, it has the first place. The statistical population includes 130 Saveh pomegranate producers and the statistical sample was extracted from 130 organic products of Saveh (in 1399) using a simple random sampling method. Data and information related to the level of cultivation of organic products in Saveh city were collected from the region.
In this study, the factors affecting the risk of Saveh organic products have been predicted using the functional approximation of genetic algorithm and Logit, which is briefly described in the method of genetic function approximation algorithm. The genetic algorithm is inspired by Darwin's genetics and evolutionary theory and is based on the survival of the fittest or natural selection. A common application of genetic algorithms is to use it as an optimization function. The algorithm operates on a range of disciplines called populations, and this population evolves and is searched for this purpose. According to the GFA model, a search criterion is performed for each field. Three corresponding operators, namely selection, mixing, and mutation, are executed. New members are scored according to the fit criteria. In GFA, scoring criteria for models are based on the quality of regression fitted to the data. Election opportunities must be added to each new member and re-evaluated for the population. This method continues for a certain number of generations until convergence is achieved (Samuel et al., 2015). Below each of the three operators is examined.

Conclusion
In the agricultural sector, there are natural hazards (drought, hail, etc.), social (theft), and economic (price fluctuations). Therefore, the producers of this sector are forced to allocate resources optimally in more uncertain conditions and environments than other economic sectors. Considering the importance of organic products in Saveh and the region, in this study, the effective factors on risk management determinants of organic products in order to change the pattern of environmental cultivation in Saveh city using the method of genetic function approximation and logit algorithm. Based on the results, education variables, animal manure consumption, market knowledge of organic produce, natural disaster (drought and frost), interest in organic farming, price fluctuations and stability, tree species, soil, and water pollution reduction, working capital Organic crop insurance and reduction of farmer income from organic crop cultivation Factors affecting the risk of Saveh organic products can be mentioned. Among the effective factors of education, use of animal manure, interest in organic farming, tree species, reduction of soil and water pollution, working capital and crop insurance have a positive relationship with the risk of Saveh organic products, among which working capital (savings) is effective. Has been more positive on farmers' risk. Also, the components of not knowing the market of organic products, the cause of heat and frost, price fluctuations and its instability, and reducing the income of organic farmers have had a negative impact on risk. The results obtained from the logit model estimation also showed that education factors, market knowledge of organic products, interest in organic farming, and working capital have become significant. Among the components of education, interest and working capital have a positive effect on pomegranate risk management. In this regard, it is suggested that in order to reduce the risk management of pomegranate growers, the government should intervene in the management of the agricultural products market and increase the insurance of agricultural products, and reduce the price differences to the final consumer between pomegranate growers to a minimum. Organic farming and working capital reduced risk management for organic pomegranates.